This past offseason Lamar Jackson set a deadline with the Ravens for contract negotiations and no deal was made by that deadline. The Ravens are atop the AFC North and while Lamar has not had an insane season, he has been very good while dealing with a lot of injuries to his lackluster supporting cast and their subpar play.
Now, as the season winds down, he finds himself entering a time where he can control his own destiny and make a choice as to what he wants to do for his career.
Lamar Jackson’s 2022 Performance
Lamar was our darkhorse MVP candidate entering this season, and he started as such. Jackson targeted Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews heavily and it produced MVP numbers. Since then Bateman was lost for the season due to injury, and Mark Andrews has been in and out of the lineup repeatedly. The weapons behind them have suffered a ton of drops and let downs as well. Despite this, Jackson has thrown for 2,231 yards with 17 touchdowns and only 7 interceptions. He has also ran for 755 yards and 3 more touchdowns on the ground. Most importantly, Lamar has looked better as a passer this season despite his lack of weapons and trust.
Why Jackson Could Choose the Ravens
In one word, loyalty. While Lamar has cut off negotiations for the season, they are still the team that drafted him. He has become a member of the Baltimore community and is a fan favorite for most. Lamar could choose to reward the team for drafting him by staying put (but it does not sound like it would be for a hometown discount). The Ravens can offer him a lot of money and could make the deal even more enticing by guaranteeing most or all of it. Furthermore, they could commit to him further by getting more weapons (real ones not the ghost of Desean Jackson) as well as firing Greg Roman. The latter being a big problem for Jackson’s development and it is a mystery why he is still the coordinator there.
Why Jackson Could Choose Free Agency
Money talks, and thus far the Ravens have not given Lamar an offer that he liked. A different team out there who feels like they are a quarterback away could offer more money and more guaranteed to Jackson in hopes of him making the difference for their franchise.
As previously mentioned, the Ravens decided to keep Greg Roman as coordinator despite a lot of evidence suggesting they should move on to someone else. While Roman crafts an offense that features Jackson’s running ability, he also crafts one that has head scratching third down concepts, too many option plays for a guy with Jackson’s arm talent, and a lack of creativity and adaptability.
Lastly, the Ravens have not shown a commitment to getting Jackson the weapons to succeed. Yes, they drafted Bateman, but the only other additions in the last couple years were third round or later picks and in-season free agents. Look at teams like Philly, Buffalo, Miami, and the Jets who went out and invested multiple high-end draft picks and trades to get their quarterbacks in the best position. The Ravens have not done this and Lamar could be taking this as a slight.
Potential Landing Spots
There are a couple obvious spots that could make sense for Lamar and for this we are going to be ignoring salary cap situations and look more at the fit and need. The obvious ones are Detroit, New Orleans, and Carolina. Detroit has a great running back duo, a young wide receiver core, and a coach that players seem to love. Jared Goff has played decently, but he does not possess the upside of Lamar. New Orleans has had a disappointing season, but they still have a great defense and have Chris Olave, Alvin Kamara, and a magical ability to ignore the salary cap. Dennis Allen has not done great in his first year and this may be a deterrent, but the Saints may want to take a big swing next season. Lastly, Carolina is in a weird spot. On one hand they will be in the head coach market and have a top pick in the draft. They could elect to take a quarterback, but they have repeatedly whiffed on unknowns and potentials that they may prefer to take their biggest swing yet. Lamar would join a young up-and-coming defense, DJ Moore, some young wide receivers in Marshal and Shenault, and a top pick in the draft that could be used on another weapon. Many expect Carolina to rebuild, but you may be able to get a head coach like Sean Payton if Lamar is included.
The less likely but also possible are the Jets, Bucs, and Titans. New York and Zach Wilson seemed destined for a break up. There’s an outside chance that this does not happen and Wilson figures it out. Yet, the Jets are 7-4 despite Wilson. Lamar would have Elijah Moore(who’s frustration you can feel in the NJ air), Garrett Wilson, and Breece Hall to form an incredibly dynamic offense. Not to mention guys like Davis, Mims, Carter, etc. The Bucs depend solely on what Tom Brady does. If he retires, Tampa should still have the team in place to compete, and Lamar could improve their awful rushing offense as well. Tennessee has been very good for the last couple years, and Tannehill has been more than serviceable as their starter. However, he seems to have faltered multiple times in the playoffs, and Lamar could bring their offense to the next level. Not to mention, Jackson is the ideal mentor for young QB Malik Willis, and Willis is the perfect backup for Jackson. Also, a read option between Jackson and Henry will keep defensive coordinator’s awake from Sunday- Saturday night. The Titans would have to add more receiving weapons for Jackson though.
A couple surprising teams may be the Seahawks and Vikings. Seattle has been much better than teams thought, and Geno Smith has had a career breakout. Seattle will probably stick with him, but they also could give Carrol the best chance possible for one more go. Minnesota has Kirk Cousins, who is having a pretty good year, but it feels like the Vikings are not true super bowl contenders with him at QB. Lamar Jackson adds another dynamic to this already great offense and could push them to perennial super bowl contenders.
Our Prediction
Firstly, we do not see Jackson returning to Baltimore unless a lot of demands are met. Carolina could have everything break right and end up with a great coach and Lamar, but that needs a lot of wheels in motion. In our opinion, we think Minnesota grows sour on Cousins after a bad playoff game and takes a massive swing to get Lamar. You would have him throwing to Jefferson, Hockenson, Thielen, and others while running with Cook and Mattison. They would also have a top tier defense and more draft capital to build around the team and a young and talented head coach.