If you are even a casual fan of the NFL, chances are you have heard the name Bijan Robinson. He is one of the most talked about running back prospects since Saquon Barkley. While we think he is slightly overhyped, he is certainly an elite prospect in the 2023 NFL draft. There is a bigger question than if Bijan is worth a top 15 or even top 20 pick, though, and that question is; is any running back?
Recent first round running backs
When you are drafting a running back in the first round, it is safe to say you are expecting an extremely special back with all pro potential. Of course, you could say that about any first rounder, yet it feels even more so with running backs. Seeing as so many great halfbacks are taken on Day two and three of the NFL draft, and since most teams run committees, a first round pick on a running back is a big deal. Since the 2017 NFL Draft, there have been running backs taken in the first round. Those players are Fournette, McCaffrey, Barkley, Jacobs, Helaire, and N. Harris.
Accolades of the first round running backs
Between these six they have one all pro and five pro bowls. While the pro bowl is definitely not a great metric to rate anything as it is a popularity contest, it is still noteworthy that they only have six. The one all pro sticks out like a sore thumb.
While being an all pro is an elite honor and there is only one per season, are you not drafting running backs in the first round with thoughts that they have all pro potential? What is even worse is that of the list above, it can easily be argued that only McCaffrey and Barkley even possess all pro potential. You could also argue that they are the only two true difference makers at the position on this list. That being said, was Barkley worth the 2nd overall pick? It is easy to see his value to the Giants, but his injuries have been noteworthy and he will most likely be on a new team next year so what is the answer?
What is the verdict on Bijan Robinson?
Since 2017 there have been six first round running backs as noted above. One was a massive bust in Helaire who cannot stay healthy. Three have been good or great but never the best at the position in Najee, Fournette, and Jacobs. One, Barkley, has been elite but injured constantly. And one, in our opinion, has truly been worth the first round selection; Christian McCaffrey. While he had a couple injury plagued seasons, his first three seasons were special. He had two seasons with over 100 catches and 1000 rushing yards including the incredible 2019 where he rushed and caught over 1000 yards each. It could also be argued that he was the true OPOY even with Michael Thomas breaking the catches record. This season he has also returned to form with 1000 rushing yards and over 80 catches.
The thing that sets McCaffrey apart from all the others on this list is his impact in multiple facets of the game. He is an elite runner and also an elite receiver in his own right. In regards to Bijan Robinson, it is hard seeing him have the impact that McCaffrey had when he was drafted. As noted in our scouting report of him, Bijan has great vision and elusiveness. He does not possess elite speed though, and while he can catch the ball, it is hard to envision anything more than 50 catches. Bijan is the best running back prospect and will most likely be taken in the first round, but as history suggests, the odds are against him that he will live up to the high selection.