The sun is setting on college football as we know it. College Football realignment and massive, impactful changes are inevitable and have already begun. We are here to update you on conference realignment news and our insight on what we could see in the near future.

Big 10

Despite many who argue that the Big 10 is College Football’s best conference, it lacks depth. Year-in and year-out over the last few seasons, the Big 10 has been home to two of the CFP’s top contenders: the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes. However, as a conference overall the competition has gone down. Just to discuss a few teams:

• Penn State has the potential to be better now that Sean Clifford is out, but they were never taken seriously as contenders while he was running the offense. 
• Wisconsin has a chance to be competitive now that Graham Mertz is no longer there and the Fickell era has begun, but it could take a couple years to get rolling. 
• Iowa’s defense is good as always, but their offense has been a major achilles heel as of late, especially last year
• The Mel Tucker led Michigan State Spartans had a down year… but luckily Payton Thorne entered the portal.
• Nebraska has hope now that Matt Rhule has taken over the program
• Northwestern is dealing with a plethora of legal issues.
• Minnesota may also have to deal with legal issues soon based on reports coming out about the program

A major issue with the Big 10 right now is the imbalance of power. All the legit(and proven) CFP contenders compete in the East(Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State… kinda). Ohio State and Michigan have run the conference over the last couple years, and they can’t even play each other in the Big 10 Championship due to the East/West divisional breakdown. This has led to years of hard to watch Big 10 Championships Games. The last watchable one being in 2017 when #8 Ohio State took down #4 Wisconsin 27-21.

Due to the lack of legit contenders in the Big 10, Ohio State and Michigan can suffer in the CFP rankings if they get caught off their game just once. The only loss that doesn’t really affect either team is if it comes from “The Game”. More competition would not only benefit the conference but help the Big 10 send in more and better prepared teams to the CFP. 

For those who are not as big into College Football, two of the PAC-12’s top contenders in USC and UCLA decided to leave the PAC-12 for the Big 10 back in late June. That alone was a seismic move in the college football landscape. However, the Big 10 said we aren’t done yet. Earlier this week reports came out that the Big 10 was looking to add Florida State and Clemson.

News broke this morning that Oregon and Washington are planning on leaving the PAC-12 for the Big 10, who has now officially stolen 4 of the PAC-12’s top contenders. The Big 10 just did wonders for themselves from a competition standpoint, and a viewership stand point, going from two legit contenders to six minimum. All four teams are set to officially join the Big 10 next year for the 2024 season.

PAC-12

The PAC-12 is falling apart with no real solutions. As we stated earlier, all four teams going to the Big 10 will officially make the change in 2024. Colorado, who’s now on the hype train with Deion Sanders at the helm, left earlier this week for the Big 12. The PAC-12 can’t even keep the conference’s weakest link as the Arizona Wildcats left the conference earlier this week to join the Big 12 as well. The PAC-12 has now gone from 12 teams to 6 teams in the last roughly 40 days. 

Based on recent events, it seems inevitable now that the PAC-12 is going to be the first conference to crumble. The only contender they have left is Utah and reports have it they could be the next PAC-12 team to agree to terms with the Big 12. There was speculation that the PAC-12 could look to teams like SDSU and Fresno State, to name a few, to join the conference, but there’s no way it’s going to be enough to keep the conference afloat.

Big 12

The Big 12 conference is fighting for their lives right now. In late July 2021, their two biggest teams, the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners, decided to leave for the SEC. Roughly 40 days later the Big 12 voted to accept the BYU Cougars, Houston Cougars, Cincinnati Bearcats, and UCF Knights into the conference. Those four officially join the conference this season.

It is hard to tell if these four teams are going to be enough to keep this conference alive long term. All four programs have been pretty consistent programs in CFB over the last couple years, but none of them have been legit contenders. Cincinnati did make the CFP in 2021, but had a “down year” last year and HC Luke Fickell left for Wisconsin. 

The Big 12 didn’t stop with just four new additions though, this week they added the Arizona Wildcats and the Colorado Buffaloes from the PAC-12. Unfortunately, Arizona has been the “little brother” of the PAC-12 that everyone got to beat up on. Colorado hasn’t been far off of Arizona, but this is a much bigger deal because of Deion Sanders signing on as the new HC this offseason. However, Colorado has yet to prove anything, they are still all bark no bite at this moment. 

The six new additions are vital to remain afloat, but are underwhelming when you look at the SEC and the Big 10. The only big rumor for this conference is that Utah is “likely” to join the Big 12. Utah is the only remaining contender from the PAC-12, and if the Big 12 could land them that could be the move that helps keep them relevant (ish).

What the Big 12 really needs though is for teams like TCU and Kansas State to continue their success heading into the new look Big 12 in 2023. They also need some of the other “top” programs in the conference to have a bounce back season.

The central issue for the Big 12 in recent memory is that they’ve been the “cannibal” conference. It’s hard for a true contender to come out of this conference because everyone is always beating everyone. More than every other conference it feels like standings and record doesn’t really matter, everyone is always on upset alert in conference play.

SEC

The SEC for years now has been the conference to beat. There has been at least one SEC team playing for the CFB National Championship every year since 2014(Ohio State vs Oregon). In the last 8 National Championships the SEC has won 6. They have heavy hitters all over the conference, but that wasn’t enough for them. The SEC added Texas and Oklahoma to the conference, who will officially start with conference play in the 2024 season. 

Rumor has it that the Big 10 isn’t the only conference interested in the ACC heavy hitters, Clemson and Florida State. The SEC is apparently very much monitoring the situation. IF the SEC eventually ends up with Clemson and/or Florida State, there’s not going to be a conference who will be able to compete with the SEC. Their conference schedules will be insane and whoever comes out as the champion is going to be a battle tested juggernaut. 

ACC

ACC schools are stuck in a strange place right now. The ACC has been arguably the 2nd best conference in all of CFB over the last few years. Yes, the Big 10 has stronger contenders at the top in Ohio State and Michigan, but we believe that from a depth perspective the ACC is better. Despite having strong resumes come playoff time, at least some of the ACC teams have expressed interest in finding a way out, citing issues with the conference’s revenue distribution. The biggest problem for the teams is that due to the way the media contracts and related items are set up, it’s extremely difficult for teams to get out. The amount of money they would have to pay to leave would be insane from our understanding. 

If the ACC wants to avoid becoming the next PAC-12 they need to find a resolution to the revenue distribution conflict, but even that may not be enough. 

ACC teams, if willing to pay their way out, will be in high demand. The Big 10 and SEC already have interest in Florida State and Clemson, and that’s just the top of the conference. 

Our Prediction

As we stated earlier, the Power 5 is bound to crumble sooner rather than later. The way it feels right now, the PAC-12 is going to fall apart between 2024 and 2026 after losing half its members in the course of roughly 40 days. As crazy as it seems, we actually think the ACC as of today is probably going to be the next conference to fall. It definitely won’t be as soon as the PAC-12, but it could be sooner than people think, especially if there’s no change to revenue distribution. The Big 12 has bought itself time, but what’s happening to the PAC-12 and the ACC is not entirely out of the picture for the Big 12. We do not think the Big 12 is going to be able to recruit on the same level as the Big 10 and SEC.

We believe that we could be looking at a two super conference CFB landscape within the next 10 years. The landscape is heading for crazy realignment and changes that’s going to change college football and traditions of the sport as we know it. Hold on tight to and enjoy old traditions like the Rose Bowl, which was always Big 10 champ vs PAC-12 champ, while we have them. The CFB landscape is a topic we are keeping a close eye on and will continue to update you and give our insight through the years.