The running back market may be the biggest story in the NFL right now and will dominate headlines for the foreseeable future. NFL Running Back as a position is in a precarious spot. Jacobs is holding out, Mixon took a pay cut, Jonathan Taylor is having a standoff with Irsay, Dalvin Cook got released, a big zoom call and there are calls for changes to be made to the running back position. In this article we will be covering the running back value, second contracts that have worked and have not worked, and some possible solutions to these issues. For the purpose of this article we are only focusing on first round running backs selected in the last 10 years as well as day 2 and 3 backs who received big second contracts.
First Round NFL Running Back Selections in the last 10 years
2023: Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs
They have not played a snap yet so it’s hard to say anything, just that their expectations are massive based on their draft slot.
2021: Najee Harris, Travis Etienne
The jury is still out but Najee has been somewhere between average with high usage and good. Etienne had a very good season last year (after not playing in his rookie season).
2020: Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Massive bust as everyone knows.
2019: Josh Jacobs
Currently holding out, yet has been very up and down throughout his career. His “breakout” season last year included a vast variation in efficiency from week to week.
2018: Saquon Barkley, Rashaad Penny, Sony Michel
Rashaad Penny has been good when healthy (which is rare) and has never been able to keep the feature back role. Sony Michel just retired and was average at best. Barkley has been amazing when healthy but again, the when healthy part is key. Has Barkley been worth the massive investment the Giants made when they drafted him in the top 5?
2017: Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey has been stellar. We hope his fully healthy season last year is a trend and not an outlier of years past. Fournette had his moment in the NFL with the Bucs playoff run. He statistically had been good, but inefficiency and weight struggles have been apparent. Definitely not worth the pick he was taken.
2016: Ezekiel Elliiot
Elliot has been run into the ground since being drafted. He started off hot in his career (though did miss some time) and has seen his YPC steadily decline to extreme inefficiency now. He is currently a free agent unable to find a home.
2015: Todd Gurley, Melvin Gordon
Gurley may be the biggest what if in recent memory. His torrid start to his career had Hall of Fame written all over it. Unfortunately, his body and knees quit as soon as he signed the second contract. This is the stark reality with running backs. As much as we love them, making a massive investment in them is extremely risky from a team’s point of view. Gordon has been okay in his career, but never the most efficient or healthy. Not worth a first round selection in our opinion.
Running Backs Whose 2nd Contracts Became Albatrosses
It is a lot
Ezekiel Elliot ( Signed 6 Year, $90 Million Extension in 2019)
As soon as this contract kicked in in 2020, his usage went down by 30% both because of injury and his knees zapping the thunder he had been known for. The Cowboys cut him loose just 3 years into the contract and still owe him over $11 million in dead money.
Alvin Kamara (Sort of) (Signed a 5 year, $75 million Extension in 2020)
Kamara has never been a model for no injuries since he started his career. But, he has been able to overcome the constant nagging injuries and has never played below 14 games. We just think this contract is going to be ugly going forward. Kamara has had a ton of off the field issues and we do not see him getting any healthier. Add in Jamaal Williams and Kendre Miller and you have a full fledged committee where a $15 million a year back does not fit.
Joe Mixon (Signed 4 year, $48 million extension in 2020)
To be fair, he took a pay cut this offseason. But, rumors swirled that the Bengals were close to releasing him after just 2 seasons on his new deal. This is not the worst contract on this list but Mixon has struggled to be anything more than average from a running standpoint since signing it and is not worth the $12 million per year. Not to mention his ability to stay healthy hasn’t been good.
Todd Gurley (Signed a 4 year, $57.5 Million Extension in 2018)
We really wish he had been able to stay healthy, but this contract went south in a hurry. He only played one year on this contract before going to the Falcons for a season and was then out of the league. Gurley may be the poster child for reasons why not to pay superstar running backs massive contracts and it pains us to say that.
Other players like David Johnson, Leonard Fournette, Le’veon Bell, and Dalvin all did not play through their full second contracts and had varying levels of disappointment based on their pay (Cook not nearly as much as others but he was still cut and has struggled to stay healthy).
Running Backs Who received 2nd Contracts and Continued Success
Christian McCaffrey (Potentially)
Even this is debatable. The jury is still out on his contract as this past season was the first full healthy season he has had in some time. He could stay healthy and be worth every penny of his deal, or he could get hurt repeatedly and be barely worth half of it.
Derrick Henry (Signed 4 year, $50 Million Deal in 2020)
If the running backs want a champion to showcase their value, Derrick Henry is the answer. In 2020 he carried the ball a ridiculous 378 times. While he did miss time in 2021 due to a broken foot he still managed 219 carries in 8 games (a 400+ rate) and 10 touchdowns. Last year he appeared back at full strength with 349 carries and a career high 33 catches.
Austin Ekeler (Signed 4 year, $24.5 Million Deal in 2020)
Ekeler has been vital to the Chargers offense since entering the league. Though you may be as surprised as we were to learn he has not hit the 1000 yard rushing mark in his career yet. Regardless, since signing his extension he has had over 50 catches each season (including 100 last year) and efficient running to pair with 25 touchdowns in the last 2 seasons.
Aaron Jones (Signed 4 year, $48 Million Deal in 2021)
Perhaps a tad under the radar, Aaron Jones has continued to be extremely efficient running the ball with close to a 5 YPC average over the last 2 seasons. He has also been a threat in the passing game and continues to be worth his deal.
Nick Chubb (Signed 3 year, $36 Million Deal in 2021)
Nick Chubb has been one of the best pure runners since entering the league, and has never dipped below 5 yards per carry in his career. While he has missed some games here and there, he has avoided major injury and has had 4 straight 1000 yard rushing seasons (while missing out on 5 by 4 yards). Due to the fact that he is not a major player in the passing game (though he has had over 20 catches in back to back seasons) he should continue to be fresh and worth his contract.
Because McCaffrey is still up in the air, look at the others on this list and notice what they have in common. None are first rounders, with Ekeler being undrafted, Aaron Jones a day 3 pick, while Henry and Chubb were 2nd rounders. They were not taken in the first round AND they have played very well and stayed relatively healthy on their second contracts. That is not to say you should not draft a first round running back (though we would not), it is just worth noting that day 2 and 3 backs that earned bigger extensions may be a better bet to play out their deals. It could be a usage thing where first round backs are just used more to justify their draft slot, but that still suggests that you are better off taking a day 2 or later back.
The Dilemma With Good Day 3 Running Backs
This goes for all players taken on day 3 that end up being steals, but especially running backs. The contracts for day 3 players are good money by most people’s standards, but still have major problems. When you are a day 3 running back you have probably until 27 to make your money (if you are most players). Unfortunately, your 4 year rookie deal could take you up to age 25 or later season. Therefore you get one chance to really cash in and that is counting on the fact that you have been super productive and healthy to get a good second contract. Take Pacheco from the Chiefs. Is he overrated? A tad but he still more than outperformed his draft slot. His running style does not project a long and healthy career but he only will have his 7th round salary with no real chance to get more until it concludes. If he is not able to remain healthy and productive he will be 25 having made a fraction of what his usage would dictate and will likely be out of the league. Then what? A 7th rounders salary is not a lot to invest or save compared to most other players. This is the one area that we feel needs a solution. The first round backs like Barkley who got a signing bonus worth more than 7th rounder’s whole contracts need to have some perspective.
NFL Running Back Dilemma Solutions and the Drawbacks
Two Year Rookie Deals for Running Backs
This is a popular one we have seen thrown around as far as solutions go and it just feels like the players barely thought this through. The whole point of a rookie deal is 4 years of control. Yes, running backs would hit the open market sooner, but gone would be the days of a first round running back or maybe even a second round back. No team would spend a first rounder on only 2 years of control. This would get the running backs to the open market sooner but also would completely devalue the draft value.
Our Solution is Arbitration in the NFL
The MLB is the most popular example of arbitration being used in pro sports. The quick and completely basic summary is that if a player thinks they are worth more than they are being paid they can enter arbitration and attempt to get paid more. If a deal cannot be agreed a third party arbitrator gets involved to make a decision. This idea is for the NFL as a whole and not just the running back position. Players like Matt Judon who want their contracts adjusted for performance (even though they signed the contract in the first place) could enter arbitration. This would be very helpful for day 3 players and undrafted who outperform their slots. Running backs have such a short pro career that players like Pacheco from Kansas City may not have a chance to truly cash in when his rookie contract is up (as opposed to other day 3 players at other positions like Maxx Crosby) while also being under team friendly control for the rookie deal. In our opinion this is a happy middle ground for running backs to get more money while not demanding so much that it devalues the position and causes teams to pass on them. There are always going to be drawbacks to any solution but the pros outweigh the cons for us.