These are our 2023 NFL Draft Bust list with the top 5 we feel are likely to be busts from the 1st round.
Will Anderson
This has nothing to do with the player. We view Will Anderson as a very good pass rusher. But, is it so elite that he will be worth the insane draft hull the Texans gave up to get there? We do not feel so. The amount of pressure you have now put on Anderson to not just be good, but to be great right away is immense. We view him closer to Josh Allen of the Jags than Von Miller, so we suspect Anderson will be a good pro that never lives up to the capital given up to get him.
Tyree Wilson
This is based on our scouting. We had Tyree Wilson pegged as a second round prospect for months. We understand we were and are in the minority with that assumption, but we are sticking by it. The fact that the Raiders took him (and teams like the Seahawks passed on him) tells us we may have been on to something. Vegas has shown a complete inability to develop defensive players besides Maxx Crosby and we do not expect Wilson to be an exception. He has a lot of power but has one of the slowest bursts in the class that will hinder his pass rushing production. What makes it even worse is the Raiders passed on much needed secondary and offensive linemen to draft Wilson.
Jahmyr Gibbs
This is all about draft slot. Gibbs was our (and many’s) running back 2 in this draft. He seems very similar to Alvin Kamara and should have a similar roll with Detroit. That being said, this was way too early. Part of what makes Kamara so good for the Saints is they did not invest a premium draft selection on him. Gibbs has insane expectations now and we do not imagine he lives up to them.
Will McDonald IV
This is one of the worst selections in the whole draft. The Jets panicked plain and simple. The first round swap cost them dearly in the Rodgers trade. Instead of going with the next best offensive linemen they got a pass rusher who should have been a late first at best. We had a second round grade on him and there were multiple other pass rushers that were far better than McDonald available.
Jack Campbell
A lot of thought and debate went into who was going to take the last spot on this Top 5 list for us. Emmanuel Forbes has a big time argument for us, but we decided to go with Jack Campbell. Campbell is your typical Mike LB, which we agreed makes sense given the LBs already in their room, but this was a big time reach. Campbell was our LB3(based on skill set and upside), and after the combine we saw a scenario where Campbell could’ve snuck into the end of the 1st(Like Buffalo at Pick 27), but Detroit was in the middle of the first round. Campbell also went before our far and beyond LB1 Drew Sanders. Campbell is a good player who has great athleticism and had the highest coverage grade since Devin White(this shocks us). Despite that we still have concerns about Campbell’s ability to play 3 downs at the next level. We wonder if he’s still going to be a sideline-to-sideline playmaker, and how he’s going to hold up in coverage. We worry about it. This pick would’ve been a reach for us anyways, but this reach looks even worse when you realize that the next LB didn’t go until Round 3, Pick 67(Drew Sanders). If Sanders went at Pick 18 and then the next LB didn’t go until Pick 67 we wouldn’t be as shocked, but it’s the fact that it was flipped.