With Draft Day here finally, we release our final mock for the 2023 NFL Draft. This is our 2023 NFL Draft Mock 5.0
Round 1
1) Carolina Panthers (from Chicago)- CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State
It has to be Stroud in our eyes. Young is the ultimate safe choice but if you wanted safe you do not give up the ridiculous package that they did to get here. The recent Stroud news is slander by definition as both stories have been proven false. It really feels like an attempt by teams to tank his stock and get him later. Stroud is the best combination of high floor and upside. This is still a dark horse for Anthony Richardson.
2) Las Vegas Raiders (VIA Proj. Trade w/HOU)– Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida
It is easy to forget that Josh McDaniels tried to use an offense built around Cam Newton while in New England. It is not hard to imagine that he tries again with a younger (and somehow more athletic) version of Cam. The Jimmy G contract allows Richardson to take as much time as needed to be ready for the pros. Vegas has glaring needs at both Offensive Line and Corner, but since when has anything that McDaniels has done in Vegas made sense.
3) Tennessee Titans (VIA Proj. Trade W/ARI)- Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
Will Anderson is a good prospect, but we cannot imagine a team as bad across the board as Arizona does not trade out here. They have too many needs to just stay put and take the pick. In our projected trade Arizona picks up multiple picks and also some needs in Malik Willis and Caleb Farley. It is worth noting the GM of Arizona was director of player personnel in Tennessee so there is familiarity.
4) Indianapolis Colts- Will Levis, QB, Kentucky
We truly believe the Colts are in love with Levis. It is such a Jim Irsay move to be all in on the wrong Quarterback after so many years of bad QB play. If they do love Levis it would be hilarious if they traded up for him, but for now we think they stay put and take the risk that Levis is there when they pick.
5) Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)- Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
We believe that if Richardson is sitting at 5, the Seahawks probably take him. We know people think the Seahawks will take Anderson if he’s here, but we just don’t buy it. We believe the Seahawks OLB room is better than some people think it is. They could take Carter here, but we also think they could find a true NT later in the draft. We think they could be a surprise CB team in the top 10. First off, the Seahawks never take who you expect them to take in the 1st (except for last year) and wouldn’t it be such a Seattle move to take a CB knowing who’s still on the board??? We think the Seahawks are in the market for another CB with Mike Jackson slated as a starter. Much like Woolen was last year, we think the Seahawks could go with another size-speed CB as they look to build the team in a similar mold to the Super Bowl teams with an elite secondary. Gonzalez and Woolen would arguably be the best young CB duo in the league.
6) Detroit Lions (from L.A. Rams)– Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
Detroit is yet another team that has Jalen Carter and Will Anderson staring them in the face; however, once again we think they pass. We’ve heard some pretty positive reports about Levi Onwuzurike who’s returning after missing all of 2022 with a Torn ACL. We think Detroit needs more of a pass rusher from the DT spot anyways and could find a player later to fill that need. The reason we don’t have them taking Will Anderson is because A) we think the Lions pass rushers are strong and B) We don’t see Anderson as a scheme fit. In Detroit Anderson would have to be a hand-in-the-dirt DE and that’s just not how we view him. Some people aren’t going to like that we are mocking Detroit a CB after the moves made in FA, but Moseley nor Sutton is an alpha at the CB spot and CJGJ is going to be their new nickel. Witherspoon automatically puts an alpha out at CB while taking the pressure off Sutton(who we suspect will start based on his contract vs Moseley’s). We think that Witherspoon’s man coverage skills could remind DC Aaron Glenn of his guy in New Orleans, Marshon Lattimore.
7) Houston Texans(VIA Proj. Trade w/ LV)- Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson
This is our big shocker in the draft and we have had this before. Murphy is our top EDGE prospect. But, there is a bigger reason why we have Murphy here. He is a far better fit for the Ryans defense than Anderson. Murphy tested better athletically and is 15-20 pounds heavier. Myles Murphy can play the true Defensive End roll that someone like Bosa plays in San Fran whereas Anderson would be miscast in this roll.
8) Atlanta Falcons- Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
People that are projecting a pass rusher to Atlanta are clueless. Utterly clueless. Lets look at their pass rushing rotation: Calais Campbell, Grady Jarrett, David Onyemata, Eddie Goldman, Bud Dupree, Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie, Kaden Ellis, and DeAngelo Malone. Where in the world does a pass rusher make sense here? They have invested both draft capital and free agency money heavily into this unit. Wide receiver, however, is incredibly weak behind London. Flowers adds much needed missing dynamics to the offense.
9) Chicago Bears (from Carolina)- Will Anderson Jr, EDGE, Alabama
Chicago desperately needs more offensive line help, but Anderson is too good to pass up here. He feels another need and Chicago could be looking to make moves to get o-line help later on.
10) Philadelphia Eagles (from New Orleans)- Jalen Carter, DL, Georgia
The Eagles will most likely need to trade up to get Carter in most scenarios. In this one, though, they have to do nothing and get an absolute steal.
11) Arizona Cardinals(VIA Proj. Trade w/ TEN)– Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Arizona is a wild card. We have a sneaky suspicion they love Smith and take him at pick 3 and shock the draft. However, they trade back and get a massive upside player that is reminiscent of Haason Reddick.
12) Houston Texans (from Cleveland)- Lukas Van Ness, D-Line, Iowa
Houston continues to build the trenches and we are adamant that they do not take a quarterback this year and instead build a fearsome defense for Ryans to succeed with. Van Ness is big and has experience in multiple positions on the line.
13) Green Bay Packers* (from N.Y. Jets)- Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Green Bay has not drafted a pass catcher in forever (or never) in the first round, we know. But, they are giving the keys to Jordan Love and the pass catchers on the team are not setting him up for success. Watson is a good field stretcher, Romeo is unknown, and they do not have a high volume target for Love to prefer. In steps JSN.
14) New England Patriots- Paris Johnson Jr, OT, Ohio State
The Patriots need to fill the void at tackle left by Isaiah Wynn, who they have not re-signed. The Patriots are in luck as all the tackles have fallen down the board and they now have their pick of any tackle they want. Paris Johnson probably has the high floor of the class and should immediately supply the Pats with high quality line play. Plus, wouldn’t it just be such a NE move to take an offensive lineman in the 1st round two years in a row.
15) New York Jets* (from Green Bay)- Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma
Again, thanks to the way the board is falling the Jets are getting their pick of this very strong OT class. We know we are higher on Anton Harrison than most, but we also don’t understand why people aren’t as high on him. We love Harrison and we’re going to stick to our scouting and say the Jets land the OT1 here at pick 15. Harrison would be a steal and could solidify the LT spot that has been so spotty with the injury plagued career of Mekhi Becton, who could kick to RT if he’s able to stay healthy.
16) Washington Commanders- Brian Branch, NB/S, Alabama
No one wants to admit it, but the Commanders roster is actually really good, but it all depends on whether they can stay healthy or not. The depth is more so the issue for this team, while the starters could probably make a deep playoff run in a pretty weak NFC. The biggest need they have is a new NB after parting ways with Bobby McCain earlier this offseason. Branch is a safety who plays the nickel spot exceptionally well, and should solidify their starting secondary.
17) Pittsburgh Steelers- Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
The Steelers could take a CB here, specifically Joey Porter Jr. The Steelers love taking in state players, plus his father obviously played for the organization. However, the Steelers are another team who are going to benefit from the way the board is falling. In our other mocks, the OTs typically don’t fall, but in this one they did, and the Steelers finally land their franchise LT in Broderick Jones. Jones will be an upgrade right off the bat and has a really high ceiling in our opinion.
18) Detroit Lions- Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia
Detroit may be looking for a wide receiver here due to the Jameson Williams suspension. Instead they think outside the box and get a massive target with run blocking ability and unlimited upside.
19) Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Peter Skoronski, OL, Northwestern
Tampa has somehow managed to keep their roster together for what seems like one final Super Bowl push. After releasing Donovan Smith the Bucs have a need at LT as well as both guard spots. If the Bucs are comfortable playing him at tackle they could do that, or they could slide him into guard which is what we like for him. We think he will be a better guard than tackle at the next level. Either way, the Bucs repair the offensive line a bit.
20) Seattle Seahawks- Adetomiwa Adebawore, DL, Northwestern
Seattle always has that pick. That combine hero that may not be ranked as high on other boards. Adebawore tested better than Kancey and got none of the press for it. Seattle gets a guy that can rush the passer in the middle next to free agent signing Dre’mont Jones
21) Los Angeles Chargers- Jalin Hyatt, WR, Tennessee
The fit makes too much sense. Hyatt is not our wide receiver 3 by any means, but he adds a lot to the Chargers wide receiver room that is missing a speed threat.
22) Baltimore Ravens- Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
The Ravens need to add more to the room. Johnston brings size that is missing and after the catch ability that should pair well with Bateman and OBJ.
23) Minnesota Vikings- Jordan Addison, WR, USC
We do not love the fit here, but Minnesota needs another wide receiver and Addison is the best available. The receiver run continues through Minnesota and they get a third option next to Jefferson and Osborn.
24) Jacksonville Jaguars- Julius Brents, CB, Kansas State
The Jaguars could use another CB, and Brents is that guy. Brents is a CB with a safety mentality. In a division where you have to play JT, Dameon Pierce, and Derrick Henry 2x a year, you need CBs who aren’t afraid of contact. Brents does not fear contact and knows how to bring the boom, he should help the Jags right away, while also having a pretty high ceiling.
25) New York Giants- Drew Sanders, LB, Arkansas
The Giants CB room outside of Adoree Jackson is pretty sad, and is pretty hard to ignore; however, Wink loves to bring the pressure. As of right now, Jarrad Davis is slated to start, and we think he could definitely be upgraded. Insert Drew Sanders. Sanders is our LB1 with inside/outside versatility, and an incredible ability to blitz. We think Sanders becomes NY’s LB1 and pairs up with Okereke to give the Giants the best LB play they’ve had in years.
26) Dallas Cowboys- Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
Again it makes too much sense. It is such a Jerry Jones pick and we would be shocked if this is not where Bijan ends up after the first round. He pairs with Pollard and forms a formidable duo.
27) Buffalo Bills- Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
Spencer Brown is coming off a pretty rough season, and Josh Allen needs to be protected. Wright is one of the top tackles in the class, and if he falls this far you can’t do anything other than run your ballot to the podium. Brown becomes a high end reserve player, while Wright becomes a bookend tackle with Dawkins.
28) Cincinnati Bengals- Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
The signing of Irv Smith does nothing for us. Cincinnati needs to do more and they go with perhaps the most complete tight end in this class.
29) New Orleans Saints (from San Francisco through Miami and Denver)- Bryan Bresee, DL, Clemson
New Orleans is still missing some pass rushing juice with the departure of Davenport, Onyemata, Ellis, and more. Bresee can play inside or outside and has a lot of potential. Cam Jordan would be the perfect mentor for him.
30) Philadelphia Eagles- Cody Mauch, OL, North Dakota State
Toothless and Ruthless. Eagles fans everywhere are going to love this kid. This is a win-win situation. Either Mauch comes in and takes over Seumalo’s OG spot or Jurgens takes over for Seumalo and Mauch gets a year to develop behind some of the best linemen in football and one of the best OL coaches.
31) Kansas City Chiefs- Sam LaPorta, TE, Iowa
We love LaPorta. He is our TE1 as far as receiving ability goes. Travis Kelce is still the best, but not getting younger. The Chiefs have been linked to pass catchers over and over and we think they zig while everyone projects a zag. Despite being a historic tight end class, there is a drop off after the top 4, so Kansas City goes and gets the player that can match Kelce’s receiving ability the most. LaPorta also has a ton of experience in the slot and on the boundary should they wish to use him there.
Round 2
32) Pittsburgh Steelers (from Chicago)- Joey Porter, CB, Penn State
Pittsburgh passes on Porter at 17 to get Pickett some offensive line help, and still get to walk away with him. Filling a need with an in-state prospect the Pittsburgh way.
33) Houston Texans- Joe Tippmann, C, Wisconsin
Tippmann is not only our highest rated center, but our highest rated IOL. Texans could use an upgrade at center since they parted ways with Justin Britt earlier this offseason. The Texans continue to build the trenches and the best possible roster to plug a QB in later.
34) Arizona Cardinals- John Michael Schmitz, C, Minnesota
Arizona misses out on Center 1 by one pick, but still walk away with Schmitz who is our Center 2. Arizona’s roster is horrible, and they could go several directions with this pick, but protecting Kyler(when he returns) has to be a priority.
35) Indianapolis Colts- Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Colts glaring need is a new CB after trading Stephon Gilmore to Dallas for peanuts. Banks’ best football is probably ahead of him although he is more ready to play than Ringo, which was an important aspect to this pick.
36) Green Bay Packers (VIA Proj Trade W/LAR)- Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
Green Bay continues their farewell tour to Rodgers by getting another much needed weapon. Mayer can block well and be a red zone target for Jordan Love as he looks to prove that he is worth the investment.
37) Seattle Seahawks (from Denver)- Calijah Kancey, DT, Pitt
Seattle again goes unconventionally and drafts their second undersized DT with a ton of upside. Kancey is a first round prospect, but we have him sliding slightly here. Seattle continues to upgrade their defense that let them down in the playoffs.
38) Las Vegas Raiders- Steve Avila, OG, TCU
Assuming Jacobs stays in Vegas… or even if he doesn’t. McDaniels’ system relies heavily on running the football and Avila is a big, strong run blocker. He needs serious work on blitz and stunt pick up in pass pro, but he should be okay in pass pro overall.
39) Carolina Panthers- Rashee Rice, WR, SMU
Carolina has a decent wide receiver room, but a ton of injury questions (Thielen and Chark) and unknowns (Marshal and Shenault). They help their rookie QB out by getting an elite jump ball receiver who makes a ton of people miss.
40) New Orleans Saints- Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Alabama
This is fully dependent on the Kamara situation, but it does not look good. Gibbs is a plug and play replacement for Kamara with an almost identical skill set and play style.
41) Tennessee Titans- O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida
The Titans offensive line needs help after purging a ton of their roster this offseason. We have concerns about Torrence’s pass pro, but he is a great run blocker and Henry is still a Titan(for now at least). Torrence will continue to help Henry succeed while not being asked to drop as often as he would with other teams in the league.
42) Green Bay Packers* (from Cleveland through N.Y. Jets)- Blake Freeland, OT, BYU
Green Bay’s 2022 4th Round draft pick Zach Tom had a rough rookie year and it’s because he was rushed into starting too early. We had Tom as a sleeper last year but noted that he needed time. Green Bay needs a starting offensive tackle now, Freeland will come in and take over for Tom who will benefit from sitting and developing.
43) New York Jets- Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa
The Jets need another LB despite extending Williams. We think Mosley could be released next offseason(or has limited time to say the least). Campbell’s snap count could be down this year, just playing situationally, but could take over as the Jets new Mike LB next year.
44) Atlanta Falcons- Kelee Ringo, CB, Georgia
Ringo’s not as ready to play as some people may think. His best football is ahead of him, but he needs the right development. AJ Terrell was a bit of a project coming out of Clemson, and look where he is now. Hopefully the Falcons can do it again and get the most out of Ringo.
45) Los Angeles Rams(VIA Proj. Trade w. GB)- Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech
We have been adamant that Tyree Wilson is not a first round prospect and we are sticking by that. The Rams have one of the most interesting and shallow rosters in football, and have so many needs. Defensive end is certainly one of them so they get the big man here.
46) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (VIA Proj. Trade W/NE)- Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
Hooker is another prospect we do not think is a first rounder. That being said, he should be able to start as soon as he is ready. A team with as much uncertainty as Tampa at the QB position could use some stability. Hooker is an athletic game manager but could succeed with Tampa’s weapons.
47) Washington Commanders- Felix Anudike-Uzomah, EDGE, Kansas State
Washington has a great team on paper, but is paper thin at depth. Should Chase Young get injured (again) they do not have much behind him. Uzomah has a ton of upside that needs some development and Washington could be the perfect place.
48) Detroit Lions- Jonathan Mingo, WR, Ole Miss
Detroit sends a message to Williams here. Mingo is reminiscent of AJ Brown (although without production) and could have that type of ceiling. Detroit continues loading up the offense (as their defense is set).
49) Pittsburgh Steelers- Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson
Simpson is coming from a pretty blitz-happy Clemson defense. The Steelers are statistically one of the heavier blitzing teams in the NFL. Simpson needs development, but can in theory be a day one starter. Roberts could play early downs and Simpson 3rd downs while he continues to improve his skill set early in his career. Simpson’s best football is ahead of him, you just need to be patient.
50) New England Patriots(VIA Proj. Trade w/ TB)- Noah Sewell, LB, Oregon
We have a Late 2nd- Early 4th round grade on Sewell. We know this is earlier than most people have Sewell mocked, but when did NE ever care about that. We think Sewell could be very scheme dependent, and remember thinking that NE would be the ideal fit when breaking down his tape.
51) Miami Dolphins- Israel Abanikanda, RB, Pitt
Abanikanda is our favorite running back prospect, and he goes to our ideal destination. Miami brought back all of their running backs and yet still have a bad room. Abanikanda has upside miles beyond anyone in their room.
52) Seattle Seahawks- Parker Washington, WR, Penn State
Seattle definitely needs another receiver. Parker Washington can play the slot and be a menace after the catch for Seattle.
53) Chicago Bears (from Baltimore)- Wanya Morris, OT, Oklahoma
The Bears skipped out on the offensive line to land Bama’s Will Anderson in Round 1. Addressing the line has to be a priority with this pick. They have done everything to help Fields succeed and addressing the line is the last piece of the offensive puzzle. Morris has a couple things to work on, but should be an immediate upgrade on what they currently have at RT.
54) Los Angeles Chargers- Zach Charbonnet, RB, UCLA
This is assuming that Ekeler is traded. Charbonnet is not our favorite fit for the Chargers, but he is the one they met with on a top 30 visit. He can come in and be an every down back for the Chargers.
55) Detroit Lions (from Minnesota)- Andrew Voorhees, OG, UNC
The Lions roster is in really good shape especially when you add the players we have them taking in this mock. We think this is a bit of a luxury pick for the Lions, who take a chance on a 1st round prospect who is falling due to a Torn ACL he suffered at the combine. The Lions line is good enough that Vorhees should be able to sit and recover all of 2023 and then come in and compete in 2024.
56) Jacksonville Jaguars- Roschon Johnson, RB, Texas
This pick pains us because we want Roschon to go somewhere where he can take over the backfield. However, he should form an elite duo with Travis Etienne.
57) New York Giants- Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
As stated earlier, the Giants CB room outside of Adoree Jackson is just sad. The Giants address the position with South Carolina’s Cam Smith who is an extremely strong coverage prospect. He is pretty bad at tackling although it’s not from lack of trying. He’s a super high effort player, and even if Smith misses a couple tackles here and there it can’t be any worse than Marcus Peters who Martindale worked with in Baltimore.
58) Dallas Cowboys- Siaki Ika, DT, Baylor
Dallas needs a run stuffer, and a run stuffer Ika is. He will not offer a ton in the pass rush, but you know this when drafting him
59) Buffalo Bills- Marvin Mims, WR, Oklahoma
Mims ran a surprising time and while he is not our favorite receiver prospect here, he has some of the better upside. He can add speed to the room while he develops and is insurance should Diggs continue to be a diva.
60) Cincinnati Bengals- Devon Achane, RB, Texas A&M
Is Mixon going to be on the roster? Unknown at this moment but they need better backups either way. Achane is a little undersized but has a ton of juice and can catch passes.
61) Chicago Bears (from San Francisco through Carolina)- Gervon Dexter, DT, Florida
Chicago seems to be building something special with Ryan Poles. The next step is adding an uber athletic defensive tackle that has a ton of upside.
62) Philadelphia Eagles- Josh Downs, WR, UNC
Philly needs a better wide receiver 3 desperately. Downs is most likely a slot only, but that is what Philly could use here.
63) Kansas City Chiefs- Dawand Jones, OT, OSU
The Chiefs don’t panic and reach on a tackle at 31. They wait until the second round to grab a tackle to pair with new KC Chief Jawaan Taylor, and it pays off. The Chiefs land Dawand Jones whose nickname is “Big Thanos”. Mahomes should feel safe with the line that the Chiefs have brought in for him despite losing Brown and Wylie.
TRADES
Las Vegas Gets: 1.02
Houston Gets: 1.07, 2024 1, Hunter Renfrow
Tennessee Gets: 1.03, DeAndre Hopkins
Arizona Gets: 1.11, 2024 1, 3.72, Malik Willis, Caleb Farley
Green Bay Gets: 2.36
Los Angeles Gets: 2.45, 3.78
Tampa Bay Gets: 2.46
New England Gets: 2.50, 3.82