The season is finally upon us. A chill in the air, leaves are falling, pumpkin spice is back in favor, and football is HERE. Without further adieu we present our 2023 NFL Award Predictions.
MVP: Lamar Jackson
Runner Up: Jalen Hurts
Dark Horse: Derek Carr
Thoughts:
The likelihood is that it is Mahomes’s award to lose. However that is the boring pick and while we want to be right, voter fatigue could be real. Lamar could explode with a new OC that runs a real offense. Add in Zay Flowers and he may have a special season. Hurts is a likely candidate for receiving votes, but we are hesitant to call him the MVP until we see how Steichen’s departure affects the offense. Derek Carr is a darkhorse for a reason. He is out of the Raider dysfunction and has a good offense backed up with a dominant defense.
OPOY: Amon-Ra St Brown
Runner Up: Christian McCaffrey
Dark Horse: Chris Olave
Thoughts:
OPOY rarely repeats, with Marshall Faulk being the last player to do so in 00-01. Amon-Ra has been one of the better receivers in the NFL, albeit quietly. That ends this season. He will likely have a ludacris target share in Detroit and end up with some wild statistics. McCaffrey is an obvious choice to be in the running if he can stay healthy. Olave could take a big step forward with Derek Carr considering the season he had with Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton.
DPOY: TJ Watt
Runner Up: Micah Parsons
Dark Horse: Azeez Ojulari/Isaiah Simmons
Thoughts:
This is the one award where it is almost always the usual suspects. With the emergence of Alex Highsmith, TJ Watt could be facing a ton of 1on1s that could lead to a crazy season. Parsons should have another great season as he continues to settle in to his pass rushing only role. Ojulari’s sacks per game average screams breakout to us. It is all about health. Isaiah Simmons finally has a competent coach to effectively utilize him which could result in something special.
OROY: Bijan Robinson
Runner Up: Zay Flowers
Dark Horse: Sam LaPorta
Thoughts:
Atlanta NEEDS this to happen. The running back position has the lowest value it has in a long time, and they just spent a premium on one in the draft. Robinson is a great player with All Pro talent, but the history of first round running backs is incredibly rocky in recent memory. Atlanta will give him the touches necessary to try and prove themselves and the world that they chose correct. Zay Flowers is going to be special we think, do not be surprised if he takes the number 1 job and never looks back. Sam LaPorta should play the big slot in an offense that is sorely lacking pass catching options not named Amon-Ra. Do not be shocked if he has one of the better rookie tight end seasons maybe ever.
* A disclaimer. We do not have any of the rookie quarterbacks for a reason. Stroud should be good in Houston, but the Texans as a whole may require a year or two to really get going. Bryce Young is going to be average (or slightly above) in Carolina this year in our opinion. And Anthony Richardson is the major wild card. We loved him this year and think he went to the perfect spot, but there is absolutely a chance the Colts use training wheels (which is likely a mistake) during Richardson’s rookie season.
DROY: Brian Branch
Runner Up: Will Anderson Jr
Dark Horse: Jalen Carter
Thoughts:
Brian Branch has already turned heads in rookie camp and the preseason. He should be a high level starter immediately. Will he had the season necessary to win this award? We think so. A dominant coverage rating while learning from a similar player in CJGJ could lead to a special season for Branch. Anderson is the obvious choice and while we did not like him as much as most, he still has the makings of a productive player. We wonder if we will need a running mate next year to truly succeed as he is likely to face double teams early and often. Is Jalen Carter a dark horse? We are considering him as one since most including us wonder if he will play enough snaps to get the counting stats you look for in this award. If he does, watch out.
Comeback Player of the Year: Damar Hamlin
Runner Up: Matthew Stafford
Dark Horse: Javonte Williams/Breece Hall
Thoughts:
Hamlin will likely play the third safety role and fill in for Hype or Poyer should they get hurt, giving him enough playing time to lock in this award. The fact that he is back and playing football is nothing short of a miracle, and extremely scary. We wish him the best and hope he has a successful career from here on out. If Stafford has one more season in him, he may try to leave it all on the field. Pairing this with a brutal defense that will require him to throw a ton, and Stafford may put up a vintage season reminiscent of his Lions days. For Williams and HAll, we do not know that they will get enough usage in their first seasons back from knee tears, but there is a chance.
Coach of the Year: Dan Campbell
Runner Up: John Harbaugh
Dark Horse: DeMeco Ryans
Thoughts:
Detroit’s expectations are sky high, but we expect them to be one of the better teams in a division of motley unknowns. Campbell hopefully will have this team up for the challenge. If they make the playoffs this should be a lock. The Ravens are going to be very good in our opinion, which could get Harbaugh votes. If DeMeco Ryans crafts a stellar defense in his first season, and Stroud elevates the offense enough, Houston could win a surprising amount of games. It may not be enough to win, but it will be enough for him to get some votes.